Arms exports (3/4): Egypt, the divine surprise in 2014

Manufacturers of French arms are back in Cairo

Michel Cabirol

The Tribune offers a series of new industrial land conquest of French armaments. Egypt, which has offered this year for four corvettes 1 billion euros, shows again interested in the Rafale.

Egypt and God will surprise to the French armament industry in 2014 in the absence yet of major contracts signed by more traditional customers in France (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Singapore, Malaysia .. .) for DCNS scored a real coup in Egypt thanks to a very efficient commercial "raid". In less than six months, the naval group sold in Cairo four corvettes Gowind 2,400 tonnes, equipped with its combat system Setis for an amount of EUR 1 billion. A surprise to much of the defense community.

And success in other calls can be ... First to MBDA has already signed a small contract for the installation of fire Exocet MM40 missiles and VL-Mica (50 million euros). Especially the missile, which is currently negotiating with Cairo a lot of missiles (between 300 and 400 million euros), this command rather expected in 2015. DCNS negotiates meanwhile a lot of torpedoes (150 to 200 million euros) to arm the first four corvettes.

Finally, the naval group returned to the negotiating table at the end of Eid, hopes to conclude by the end of a second order for two new corvettes, opposite the Dutch Damen. An order of about 500 million euros budgeted by Cairo.

 A relationship of trust between Paris and Cairo 

Control facilitated by the good relations between Paris and Cairo. The Defence Minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, readily acknowledged mid-September to the National Assembly: "Egypt is willing to work with France and our relationship is great quality." A new command will be played primarily on criteria "policies and thus rational," says one in Paris. The two countries already have a "very good relationship in the field of armaments." In particular, they have created a Franco-Egyptian military armament strategy committee (CAMAS), which allows each year to two staffs scan all files of cooperation.

Egypt, which has a long tradition of acquiring French arms would once again do not depend only on the United States. Over the period 2009-2013, Egypt ordered 245.3 million euros to French industrialists. Flows were modest but steady: 71,900,000 in 2009, 16,300,000 in 2010, 43,100,000 in 2011, 49,700,000 in 2012 and 64,400,000 in 2013. For example, Renault Trucks Defense (RTD ) has sold a lot in Egypt. The manufacturer of light armored vehicles and trucks signed up for several hundred million of military and quasi contracts with Cairo.

Beyond weapons, France is among the largest foreign investors in Egypt. Approximately 110 companies, representing approximately € 4.3 billion of capital in 2012 and employing 30,000 people were present in the country.

 Support Paris Egyptian military 

These relationships go back to the diplomatic position of France with the return of the military to power in July 2013. In April, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs recalled that France had "decided to continue its policy dialogue with Egypt and maintain , for development of the country, the Franco-Egyptian cooperation. "Unlike the United States, which has disappointed the Egyptian military. Paris and welcomed the "importance" of elections in May "credible and transparent, enabling the participation of all and meet international standards."

Finally, France argued in July, "the proposal made ​​by Egypt and endorsed by the Arab League, a cease-fire immediately, followed by discussions to establish a lasting truce" between Israel and the Palestinians Gaza in the middle of a bloody conflict for too many civilians, had said in July the National Assembly Foreign Minister, Laurent Fabius.

 And Rafale? 

It's new, all hot. Cairo expressed during the visit in mid-September of Jean-Yves Le Drian an interest in the Rafale, it does confirm to The Tribune. An application that is not new. For already at the beginning of summer 2011, the Egyptian military had sent to Paris an "expression of interest" from 12 to 20 Rafale. Paris was then very embarrassed and Dassault not interested. However, Paris had begun to discuss with Cairo to understand the needs of the Egyptian military. Egyptian drivers even try the Rafale. But it does not go any further. Today, the demand of the Egyptians should be studied in more detail.

Meanwhile, back on the modernization of their 20 Mirage 2000 EM / BM ordered in December 1981 and delivered between 1986 and 1988, does not advance the absence of agreement on price. If Cairo remains "very interested" in this, the Egyptians are "too expensive and too long." Dassault Aviation and Thales propose a modernization like India, without air-ground dimension, to limit costs. A proposal that the two manufacturers were also in Peru (12 Mirage). In Egypt, the bill would amount to 900 million euros, or over one billion, according to various sources. For its part, MBDA offers a lot of air-air Mica missiles to arm the Mirage 2000 Egyptians. That the European missile had done in India (493 Mica missiles IR / EM for 959 million euros).

 An explosive issue on air defense 

In addition, MBDA offers in Cairo solutions to retool the Egyptian army in the field of air defense (Air defense) of short and medium range. Like Saudi Arabia, Egypt currently has Rattlesnake missiles (Thales). An issue that could be very, very explosive between the two groups.

A hot topic because Libya is currently focusing all the difficulties of the region (civil war, arms trafficking, illegal immigration, Islamist radicalism and state failure) has porous borders with Egypt.

 Who finance arms purchases? 

To modernize its army, Egypt has received financial support from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). For Cairo, which has just concluded a weapons control for $ 3.5 billion with Russia can not afford to fund only projects of this magnitude, despite a growth of 2 7% this year, against 2.1% in 2013, according to the report of the IMF world economic outlook.

Why these two countries they fund Egypt? "Saudi Arabia defends itself by defending the Egyptian military regime, decrypts the director of research at CNRS and specialist in Egypt and the Arab world, Marc Lavergne on the website JOL Press. She is terrified of Islamists ". That is why he says Ryad "financially supports Egypt up to $ 12 billion." UAE, fiercely hostile to the Muslim Brotherhood, have meanwhile pumped billions of dollars into Egypt since the overthrow of former president Mohamed Islamist Morsi in July 2013.

In addition, France and the UAE want to "achieve" joint development projects, primarily in Egypt, assured early October the new Special Representative for the French Gulf state. The two countries are "stage identification and implementation of a number of projects with social, humanitarian and political dimension to support the development of the country, and also more technological or economic dimension, for example, food and energy. "A necessity in the latter area because the country is prone to power cuts daily. Up to eight hours per day. In early September, a huge cut deprived much of Cairo (over 20 million) of electricity due to a "failure", which paralyzed the metro rush hour.

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