The Submarine Race in Asia

Indonesia Submarine (Kaskus)

Most Asian nations have been expanding their military budgets and capabilities in recent years. Now there is a new rush by Southeast Asian countries to acquire submarines because they have the money to pay for them.

On Jan. 1, Vietnam received its first of six Russian Kilo-class submarines. The last one is expected to be delivered in 2016. Myanmar intends to create a submarine force by 2015. Thailand plans to include the purchase of submarines in its soon-to-be-announced 10 -year armed forces development proposal. Thai officers are already enrolled at submarine training schools in Germany and South Korea, two potential submarine suppliers.

Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia have submarine fleets and plan to procure more. Malaysia paid a Franco-Spanish consortium $1.1 billion for two submarines in 2007 and 2009. Indonesia expects to replace its two aging submarines and expand its fleet to 12 with submarines from South Korea and possibly Russia by 2020. Only the Philippines, among the big nations, has not acquired new submarines yet.

These countries are not arming against each other. The arms expansion is a reaction to increasing uncertainty about the distribution of power in the region, caused largely by the extension of Chinese naval power into the South China Sea and Indian Ocean. But Chinese naval expansion is not likely to be halted by these submarine fleets. China will simply augment its anti-submarine capability. Each expansion only adds to regional suspicion and tension.

It is not at all clear that China would be more restrained with its aggressive claim if these nations possessed more military power. Japan’s substantial military power, including an advanced submarine fleet, has not stopped China from acting on its territorial claim against Japan in the East China Sea. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations needs to act collectively to negotiate with China to prevent further destabilization, instead of each country dealing separately with China.

Much of this arms competition is propelled by growing wealth in Southeast Asia, which is tied to the 21st-century global economy. These countries and China should realize that increasing their armaments can only undermine their security as well as the stability that nurtures their economies.

  ♞ Nytimes