Defence experts are playing down tensions over Australia's accidental breaches of Indonesia's waters and say Jakarta's vow to boost its southern sea patrols could even work in Australia's favour.
After the Abbott government announced on Friday that navy and customs vessels carrying out border protection operations had strayed into Indonesian territory, Jakarta angrily demanded Australia halt such operations.
It vowed to boost naval patrols to its south, including with an extra frigate, and insisted on its ''right to protect its sovereignty and territorial integrity''.
But experts and Defence sources have said the close military-to-military ties mean any escalation - of the kind predicted by former prime minister Kevin Rudd last year under an Abbott government's boat turn-back policy - is highly unlikely.
A greater Indonesian navy presence in the seas south of Java would actually increase their responsibility for patrolling for asylum-seeker vessels heading off from their territory, a Defence source said.
Benjamin Schreer, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, who has written on Indonesia's military, said Jakarta's tough language was aimed largely at a domestic political audience.
There was little chance of escalation or miscalculation by commanders on the seas because the two countries' navies knew each other well thanks to past joint-exercises and personal networking between officers.
''The protocols are well-established,'' he said. ''I also think there is sufficient trust established between these two navies who actually know each other quite well.
''You can even see it in a positive light and say the greater presence of Indonesian ships in the area means they can work with us on monitoring ship movements.''
They would also know that their weapons and sensors were no match for Australia's advanced Anzac-class frigates. Indonesian frigates were ''basically ships from the 1960s'' built by the Dutch and upgraded, he said: ''There is no comparison with the Anzac in terms of the technological standards.''
Dave McRae, an Indonesia specialist at the Lowy Institute, said neither side wanted a confrontation but the fact alone that Jakarta was intensifying patrols because of Australia's actions was ''damaging imagery'' for the relationship.
''The potential for a nationalist response from the public makes it difficult for the Indonesian government to take a muted stance, even if they were inclined to.''
Dr McRae said by refusing to take a backward step in carrying out its tough border protection policies, the Abbott government risked allowing people-smuggling to overshadow other, more important parts of the relationship.
''The Australian government really has to ask: is people-smuggling the issue that it wants at the core of bilateral ties?''
After the Abbott government announced on Friday that navy and customs vessels carrying out border protection operations had strayed into Indonesian territory, Jakarta angrily demanded Australia halt such operations.
It vowed to boost naval patrols to its south, including with an extra frigate, and insisted on its ''right to protect its sovereignty and territorial integrity''.
But experts and Defence sources have said the close military-to-military ties mean any escalation - of the kind predicted by former prime minister Kevin Rudd last year under an Abbott government's boat turn-back policy - is highly unlikely.
A greater Indonesian navy presence in the seas south of Java would actually increase their responsibility for patrolling for asylum-seeker vessels heading off from their territory, a Defence source said.
Benjamin Schreer, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, who has written on Indonesia's military, said Jakarta's tough language was aimed largely at a domestic political audience.
There was little chance of escalation or miscalculation by commanders on the seas because the two countries' navies knew each other well thanks to past joint-exercises and personal networking between officers.
''The protocols are well-established,'' he said. ''I also think there is sufficient trust established between these two navies who actually know each other quite well.
''You can even see it in a positive light and say the greater presence of Indonesian ships in the area means they can work with us on monitoring ship movements.''
They would also know that their weapons and sensors were no match for Australia's advanced Anzac-class frigates. Indonesian frigates were ''basically ships from the 1960s'' built by the Dutch and upgraded, he said: ''There is no comparison with the Anzac in terms of the technological standards.''
Dave McRae, an Indonesia specialist at the Lowy Institute, said neither side wanted a confrontation but the fact alone that Jakarta was intensifying patrols because of Australia's actions was ''damaging imagery'' for the relationship.
''The potential for a nationalist response from the public makes it difficult for the Indonesian government to take a muted stance, even if they were inclined to.''
Dr McRae said by refusing to take a backward step in carrying out its tough border protection policies, the Abbott government risked allowing people-smuggling to overshadow other, more important parts of the relationship.
''The Australian government really has to ask: is people-smuggling the issue that it wants at the core of bilateral ties?''
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